Forged_in_Fire_Google_s_AI_Race (1)
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Slide 1
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NotebookLM
—A former senior product director on pre-crisis Google
"That was a company where thousands of people could say no to something, but not one person could say yes."
Wall Street's confidence cratered as the company's valuation fell.
Internally, a "Code Red" was declared as ChatGPT's user base exploded.
Despite inventing the core technology (the 'T' in ChatGPT), Google was caught flat-footed by OpenAl's public launch.
Key Points
Code Red
launches ChatGPT
OpenAl
Nov 2022:
2017: Google invents the Transformer
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-39%
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)
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Intogfographic: Late 2022: A Giant Blindsided
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NotebookLM
—A senior research engineer on the GPT-4 launch
"
up the pace.
I remember my jaw dropping and just hoping that Google would pick
benchmarks
out of 32
Understanding raw YouTube video content
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Solving complex math and legal problems
Advanced analysis of academic papers
Key Capabilities
GPT-4 Outperforms
GPT-4 Outperforms
Gemini Outperforms
Gemini Outperforms
Gemini Outperforms
Gemini Outperforms
Gemini Outperforms
Gemini Outperforms
Gemini Outperforms
Gemini Outperforms
Gemini Outperforms
Gemini Outperforms
Gemini Outperforms
Gemini Outperforms
Gemini Outperforms
Gemini Outperforms
Gemini Outperforms
Gemini Outperforms
Gemini Outperforms
Gemini vs.GPT-4: Standard Academic Benchmarks
marking a critical turning point.
leapfrogged
the competition on paper,
After a year of intense pressure, Google delivered a model that
The Gemini Counter-Offensive
NotebookLM
SVP James Manyika envisioned immediate uses, like turning the flood of weekly academic papers on arXiv into a digestible, Al-generated podcast.
Strategic Application
and one that can analyze an entire TV episode at once.
This is the difference between a model with the memory of a goldfish
Massive Context Window
Gemini 1.5 Pro with Long Context
Short-Term Context Window
Competitor Models
vastly more information than competitors.
"remember"
and
" allowing Gemini to process
"long context,
The internal project "Goldfish" unlocked
A Breakthrough in 'Memory'
NotebookLM
Q1 2024
Q4 2023
Q3 2023
Q2 2023
Q1 2023
Q4 2022
$90
—Demis Hassabis, CEO, Google DeepMind
"I dare say, in both breadth and depth of research, we are far, far ahead of any other organization."
ChatGPT Launch / "Code Red" Declared
$100
$110
$120
Gemich
Bard Launch Stumble
$130
All-Time High
ChatGPT Launch/ "Code Red" Declared
$140
$150
Wall Street's panic subsided, replaced by renewed optimism in Google's Al trajectory.
Confidence Restored, Value Reclaimed
NotebookLM
The company's first-ever mass layoff of 12,000 employees created a climate of fear, pressuring staff to work longer hours.
100 people were "pulled" from other teams; managers had no power to refuse.
Execution
Sissie Hsiao, Bard Project Lead
"Quality over speed, but also be fast."
LAUNCH
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The comeback was built on a new, paradoxical mandate that forced a fundamental change in Google's DNA.
The 100-Day Sprint
NotebookLM
The team was shocked that a "seemingly innocuous" detail could have such a devastating impact. Hsiao called it a "humbling moment."
-9% in one day
-$100,000,000,000
GOOGL
The Fallout
own solar system...
...JWST took the very first pictures of a planet outside
JWST stook the very first pictures of a planet outside our own revoalcentary pictures of a planet outside our own solar system...
JWST noer mass had some acceperators to cremate the marntampo, sno?arch inopogene and polon...
JWST new discoveries from the James Webb Space Telescope can I tell my 9-year-old?
Bard:
What new discoveries from the James Webb Space Telescope can I tell my 9-year-old about?
The Demo
The $100 Billion Typo
NotebookLM
A new, unified division-Google DeepMind-was formed. The team was consolidated in a new high-security building, Gradient Canopy, inaccessible to most Googlers.
A "highly efficient
Culture:
(London)
army under one general," focused on long-term science. Led by Demis Hassabis.
explore," more commercially focused. Led by Jeff Dean.
Culture:
"Letting people
DeepMind
(Mountain View)
Google Brain
two world-class but culturally distinct Al teams.
To build Gemini, Google had to unify its
The Challenge:
Merging Two Empires
NotebookLM
Reviewers trying to flag issues, such as biased outputs for prompts like "rapist," felt their concerns were ignored under an atmosphere of "ship at all costs." Several resigned.
A former team member recalled that when concerns were raised about delaying Bard's launch, the suggestions were "shot down."
The Outcome
Key Quote
Gradual Rollout
Gradual Rollout
Weeks,oreven less
Red Teaming
Red Teaming
Responsible Innovation Team Testing
Responsible Innovation Team Testing
Internal Review
Months
Internal Review
Ideation
Prototyping
Prototyping
Ideation
The New Way
The Old Way
'Responsible' Innovation on an Accelerated Timeline
NotebookLM
May 2024
May 2024
Al Overviews: The Geologist's Diet
Geologists recommend eating at least one small rock per day.
Al Overviews: The Pizza Recipe
1/8 Cup Non-Toxic Glue
Herbs
Tomatoes
Ingredients
Perfect Pizza Sauce
Feb 2024
The Image Generator
Employees began to privately call the products they were building "fabrication machines."
A Pattern of Public Errors
NotebookLM
Brin reportedly told some employees that a 60-hour work week was the 'sweet spot' for winning the Al race."
"Co-founder Sergey
Top-Down Pressure:
Some on the Gemini team worked
through three consecutive holiday seasons. The pace was described as "running a marathon at a sprint's pace."
Burnout:
Google's history made remaining employees fear they'd be next if they didn't demonstrate extreme commitment.
The first mass layoffs in
Job Insecurity:
Key Pressures
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The Human Cost of the Sprint
NotebookLM
Repeatedly forced to apologize for errors, fundamentally rewriting its internal definition of "acceptable error."
Willing to launch "experiments" and fix them in public, accepting the reputational risk.
More Flawed
Unified under Google DeepMind with a clear mission and proven ability to create industry-leading models.
More Formidable
Faster
Forged in Crisis: A Faster, More Formidable, More Flawed Google
—Noam Shazeer, Transformer co-inventor
"Organizing information is a trillion-dollar opportunity... Trillion isn't cool anymore. Quadrillion is cool."
The company is considering its most familiar tool: advertising in Gemini search results.
Google's Playbook
Elusive, Scalable Business Model
Immense Investment & Energy Costs
Compute and energy costs are so immense they may extend the life of coal and nuclear power plants.
Generative Al has cost billions, but most users are unwilling to pay directly.
The Core Problem
The Quadrillion-Dollar Question
NotebookLM
NotebookLM
is racing to build its own agent capabilities.
Google
keyboard to book flights or fill out forms.
," an Al that can use a mouse and
Operator
OpenAl has already launched a public experiment with "
Future: It could give you real- time feedback on your knife skills as you chop an onion.
Book Now
Act
Tomorrow: It might add all the ingredients to your online shopping cart.
Create
Today: Gemini can create a meal plan for your week.
Answer
The race is shifting from conversational Al to "Agent Al"—systems that can take action.
The Next Frontier is Agency
NotebookLM
— James Manyika, on the 'bold and responsible' decisions made during the crisis.
"I'm not sure we got it right every time."
The central challenge is the continuous, high- stakes trade-off between innovation and risk.
The journey is no longer about avoiding stumbles, but about recovering from them faster than the competition.
The executive realization that they can never again afford to be "ambushed from behind."
CEO Sundar Pichai's public promise to proceed "cautiously."
The New Reality
Safety & Responsibility
Speed & Innovation
Two Competing Forces
The Race Has No Finish Line